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Updated: 1 year 9 weeks ago

Dion's Weekly ETF Winners and Losers

Sat, 13/11/2010 - 07:15
Winners iPath Dow UBS Natural Gas Total Return Subindex ETN (GAZ) 10.9% Barring its tepid performance in light of Friday's selloff, nothing stood in the way of the natural gas ETN this week as the fund recovered all of last week's losses and more. Currently the fund sits at levels last seen in the second half of August. Despite its staggering run up, GAZ is not a fund I would be playing with right now. In recent weeks, the popularity of natural gas has led droves of investors into the market seeking exposure. The increase in demand has caused GAZ to become detached from its underlying assets, running up a 26% premium. This has dramatically skewed the fund's performance. One needs only look at GAZ's performance against fellow natural gas futures ETF, the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) to see the problem here. UNG, which does not currently boast a substantial premium, ended the week on a down note, slipping 2.8%. When GAZ's premium is eventually wiped out, investors will be in for some rocky performance as it reverts back to its underlying assets. Don't get caught in the crossfire with this fund. iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX) 6.7% After months of tumbling lower, the VIX-based ETNs at last scored some positive gains. Much of this week's gains can be traced back to Friday. Concerns about China set off a global selloff, sending investors fleeing for the exits. Despite its run-up, I would advise long-term investors to avoid getting caught up with VXX. ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TBT) 4.5% Coming off the volatile summer season, long-term U.S. Treasuries were riding high and drawing large crowds of cautious investors. However, throughout the autumn season, investors have regained some confidence and taken steps back into the marketplace. This has caused funds like iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) to reverse lower, revisiting levels seen in June. TBT, meanwhile has been on a consistent road higher since October. The Federal Reserve's plans for QE2 are further pressuring long-term Treasuries. Although market jitters remain, investors may want to look at defensive plays beyond U.S. treasuries. Two of my particularly favorite regions of the market include dividend paying equities and precious metals. SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) 3.1% Heading into Friday, XOP was in the midst of a fantastic week of trading, thanks to news of Chevron's (CVX) decision to purchase Atlas (ATLS). XOP boasts some of the heaviest exposure to these two particular firms. In fact, ATLS is the fund's largest position, representing nearly 4% of the fund. Friday caused the fund to give back a considerable portion of its gains. Although it got knocked, the fund still managed to place among the week's best performers. Energy plays look promising as we head into the close of 2010. Emerging-market growth coupled with cooling temperatures paint a strong picture for oil and gas producers. It may be a good time to pick up funds aimed at tracking this industry. Losers iPath Dow Jones UBS Sugar Total Return Subindex ETN (SGG) -17.3% The biggest tumbler of the week was sugar. Thanks to an ultimatum aimed at sugar hoarders in Pakistan and to reports that India was forecasting strong supply, the sweetener took a nosedive at the end of the week, locking in its worst single-day loss in 30 years on Thursday. SGG has had a roller coaster of a year. In early months, the fund crumbled to new all-time lows. More recently, it has taken off, carving out new all-time highs. Though they can be gut-wrenching, it is not uncommon to see wild swings in single-commodity exchange traded products. Conservative investors would be better off looking to diversified funds such as the PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) for their crop futures fix. Guggenheim Solar Energy ETF (TAN) -8.6% The solar energy ETF, which has benefited in recent weeks from the positive earnings data coming from major holdings, hit a roadblock this week, tumbling for four consecutive days. Like other alternative energy industries, solar energy is heavily dependent on government subsidies to stay lucrative. Investors holding TAN need to maintain a close watch over not only the industry but also the macroeconomic situations facing nations including the U.S., Europe, and China. Both could send companies like First Solar (FSLR), and Suntech Power Holdings (STP) for a loop. Market Vectors Brazil Small Cap ETF (BRF) -7.0% Emerging and developed markets alike ran into weakness this week. BRF was leading the way lower with funds including WisdomTree India Earnings ETF (EPI), iShares MSCI Spain Index Fund (EWP) and iShares MSCI Austria Investable Market Index Fund (EWO) following suit. Although emerging markets appear promising looking ahead, the outlook for the EU is not quite as clear. As witnessed this week, debt issues continue to threaten this region of the globe. Investors should hold off until clearer skies prevail.

3 Retirement Funds Prep for Harder Times

Sat, 13/11/2010 - 02:00
By Stan Luxenberg NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Will another bout of inflation appear? Plenty of economists worry that the Federal Reserve's efforts to flood the economy with cash will trigger inflation in coming years. So far, consumer prices remain subdued, but managers of target-date retirement funds are preparing for harder times. The funds are adding commodities and inflation-protected bonds, assets that can hold their value during inflationary periods. Companies that are adjusting their portfolios include AllianceBernstein (AB), Principal Financial Group (PFG) and T. Rowe Price (TROW). Target-date funds are designed for savers who plan to retire in a certain year such as 2010 or 2040. Popular offerings in 401(k) plans, the funds hold diversified portfolios that include mixes of stocks, bonds and other assets. As part of its mix, AllianceBernstein has held global real estate investment trusts. Now to protect against inflation, the company is expanding its REIT component to include commodity futures, natural resource stocks and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS. When the new inflation strategy is fully implemented in the next several months, investors in the AllianceBernstein 2010 Retirement Strategy (LTDAX) will have 5% to 10% of assets in the inflation basket. Before devising its new strategy, AllianceBernstein studied the impact of inflation on various asset classes. Researchers found that traditional hedges -- including gold and commodity futures -- typically rose in value during years when inflation was accelerating. But no single investment provided perfect protection. While commodities often climbed during times when demand was increasing and the economy was overheating, there were incidents when commodities fell because of oversupplies. Precious metals only climbed 49% of the time in inflationary periods. Even 10-year TIPS, among the most reliable hedges, only worked 84% of the time. With data in hand, the fund company sought to build a diversified package of inflation hedges that would work in most environments. "Not every asset class will perform well in every environment, but you hope that the mix will perform well over long cycles," says Thomas Fontaine, head of defined contribution investments for AllianceBernstein. Fontaine says that the inflation protection comes at a price. Because TIPS offer security, they cost more and deliver smaller returns. Investors who substitute TIPS for conventional Treasuries might sacrifice 0.25% in annual returns. "You are paying an insurance premium for the inflation protection," says Fontaine. In July, T. Rowe Price began adding its Real Asset Fund to the company's target-date offerings. The inflation fund will account for 5% of the equity allocation of the funds. Besides holding stocks of metals and mining companies, the fund also owns REITs, which invest in commercial properties, such as offices and shopping malls. REITs don't necessarily rise and fall with inflation every month, but they tend to track consumer prices over long periods, says Wyatt Lee, associate portfolio manager of the T. Rowe Price retirement funds. "If you own an office building, you can't reset the rent tomorrow, but you can raise rents gradually along with inflation," he says. In the past, T. Rowe Price included its Short-Term Income fund in the retirement portfolios. But now that fund will be converted into the Inflation Focused Bond Fund. At the retirement date, the target-date portfolio will have 10% of the assets in the inflation fund, which will hold TIPS and other securities. After the retirement date, the allocation to the inflation bond will gradually increase until it reaches 20% of assets. "Inflation protection is particularly important for someone who is retired and needs reliable income," says Lee. In some of its target funds, ING is including two inflation funds, ING BlackRock Inflation Protected Bond (IBRSX) and ING Goldman Sachs Commodity Strategy. The two funds should complement each other because they are likely to excel at different times, says Paul Zemsky, ING's head of asset allocation. As inflation begins to accelerate, commodities can rise sharply for six or 12 months, Zemsky says. Then rising commodity prices tend to inadvertently slow economic growth. That puts a damper on further commodity increases. "Commodities do best during the early phases of inflation," says Zemsky. "TIPS rise steadily and can do well during a protracted period of inflation." Principal Financial Group recently added Principal Diversified Real Asset Fund to the company's retirement-date offerings. The fund includes natural resources stocks and master limited partnerships, which own oil and gas pipelines. "There hasn't been significant inflation in two decades, but we are concerned that things could change," says Randy Welch, director of investment services for Principal. Recall the late 1970s, when inflation plagued the markets. With prices rising at a 9% annual rate, the value of stocks and bonds eroded. Retirees living on fixed incomes watched helplessly while their purchasing power dropped. By Stan Luxenberg Become a fan of TheStreet on Facebook. RELATED STORIES: More Staff Rely on Work Retirement Plans Retirement Age Boost Part of Deficit Plan

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