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'Fast Money' Recap: Searching for a Catalyst

Wed, 08/09/2010 - 16:06
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The markets rebounded Wednesday despite a Fed report showing a slowing economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 46.32, or 0.45%, to 10,387.01 and the S&P 500 added 7.03, or 0.64%, to 1,098.87. The Nasdaq rose 19.98, or 19.98, or 0.90%, to 2,228.87. Pete Najarian said on CNBC's "Fast Money" show that the S&P is continuing to struggle at 1,100 and that he doesn't see a double-dip recession. He said he's been closely watching the copper trade and Shanghai index and said they aren't ready to break down yet. For a breakout of some stocks from a recent "Fast Money" TV show, check out Dan Fitzpatrick's "3 Stocks I Saw on TV." 3 Stocks I Saw on TV var config = new Array(); config"videoId" = 605430856001 ; config"preloadBackColor" = "#FFFFFF"; config"useOverlayMenu" = "false"; config"width" = 265;605430856001 config"height" = 255;605430856001 config"playerId" = 1243645856; createExperience(config, 8); Tim Seymour said it's an open question whether the tech stocks are risk-on or value traps. He said there is fantastic trading in the underlying metals in the commodity trade that is being spurred by "real demand." Joe Terranova said the market could move to the upside if oil and the euro stabilize. Karen Finerman said Hewlett-Packard (HP) was a difficult call. She said the catalysts for the stock could be a new CEO and its upcoming earnings. Najarian said the financials need to break the 200-day moving average if the market is to move higher. He said that currently isn't happening because of the uncertainty surrounding the financials, particularly the political uncertainties facing Goldman Sachs (GS). Brian Kelly said silver and gold were on a tear today, as the inflation trade is on even as the economy is weakening. Melissa Lee, the moderator of the show, brought in Eamon Javers, CNBC reporter to talk about the prospects of a new Obama economics plan. He said it appears as if Congress will shift into a lame duck session as the two parties do their best to block the other's proposals. Lee noted that BP (BP) ended higher even though it blamed its partners Transocean (RIG) and Halliburton (HAL) for the Deep Water Horizon spill. Finerman said it's really not up to BP to assign blame. Rather she said it would take a litigious process to do that. Seymour said he would rather be invested in an integrated overseas like Total S.A (TOT). Terranova agreed and ticked off some other names he would invest in such as Occidental (OXY) and Apache (APA). In the ag space, Kelly sees a little more upside for Potash (POT), though he continues to like Andersons (ANDE) in that space. Najarian said he liked Dupont (DD). Lee shifted to Google (GOOG) and wondered whether it's new instant search tool will lift the stock, which is down 25% for the year. Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney said the tool will help. He said the two data points to remember about Google is it is nearing 1 billion simultaneous users and its mobile search queries business is growing rapidly. He said Google's rebound will hinge on the accelerated growth of mobile, display and YouTube in the back half of this year. SAP's (SAP) co-CEO William McDermott appeared on the show to talk about his company's plans to maintain its market lead. He said SAP will stick to its core business as it reaches out to 25 industries in 130 countries. He acknowledged structural issues in Japan and said China will be an "unbelievable" opportunity for the company. While his competitors look to M&A to grow, SAP will grow organically as it seeks to maintain its leadership in business applications, business intelligence and mobility, he said. Najarian said the big-cap tech stocks like Intel (INTC) and Microsoft (MSFT) trade like big pharma names. He said he would prefer to be smaller, faster-growing tech stocks like Netezza (NZ) and NetApp (NTAP). Shifting to the natural food stocks, Lee noted that Hain Celestial (HAIN). Greg Badishkanian, a Citigroup analyst, said the stock is close to its 52-week high and is trading at 17 times its 2011 earnings compared to the industry norm of 22 times 2011 earnings. He said he would be a buyer of the stock based on its prospects for accelerated sales growth. He said the company does especially well with independent health food stores. In the pitch for the day, Kelly chose Verisign (VRSN). He said the knock on the stock has been the loss of its security business, but he said its foreign language domain business could drive the company in the future, as it offers global branding opportunities to U.S. companies. In the final trades, Brian Kelly liked Digital River (DRIV). Seymour liked Ford (F). Terranova liked Radio Shack (RSH). Finerman liked Dana (DAN). Najarian liked Brocade (BRCD). --Written by David Tong in San Francisco. To contact the writer of this article, click here: David Tong. To follow the writer on Twitter, go to http://twitter.com/davidtong. To submit a news tip, send an email to: tips@thestreet.com. To watch replays of Cramer's video segments, visit the Mad Money page on CNBC. Follow TheStreet.com on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap: My Fantasy Draft (Final)

Wed, 08/09/2010 - 15:15
Search Jim Cramer's Mad Money trading recommendations using our exclusive Mad Money Stock Screener and watch Jim Cramer's Mad Money Post Game video exclusively on TheStreet.com. NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- "With the NFL football season starting tomorrow, it's time to pick our fantasy stock portfolio," Jim Cramer announced to the viewers of his "Mad Money" TV show Wednesday. Donning his "Mad Money" football helmet, Cramer said picking a diversified portfolio is a lot like picking the best players for each position you need for a football team. For his running backs, Cramer chose ConocoPhillips (COP), a stock which he owns for his charitable trust, Action Alerts PLUS, and Nucor (NUE). He said these stocks are the work horses of this portfolio. At quarterback, Cramer said he wanted someone with many skills, and that's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B). This company provides a railroad and an insurance company, along with pipelines, steel and a host of other industries. Apple (AAPL), another Action Alerts PLUS name, was drafted for Cramer's wide receiver spot, as he reiterated his $300 price target on the stock. Also in at wide receiver, Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) and Medco Health Solutions (MHS). For his defense, Cramer chose the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF, for now through October 1st, then the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) for the remainder of the season. Finally, as his all-star kicker, Cramer picked General Mills (GIS), another Action Alerts PLUS favorite. Cramer said with a portfolio as diverse and as talented at this one, investors will enjoy a great football season. Natural Gas Play In an exclusive "Executive Decision" segment, Cramer spoke with John Sherman, president and CEO of Inergy (NRGY), the country's fourth largest distributor of propane gas and a master limited partnership currently yielding 7.8%. Sherman said while he still likes the propane business, Inergy's recent acquisition of Tres Palacios Gas in Texas creates an opportunity to take the company to a new level. He said the acquisition not only puts Inergy on the map for the natural gas business, it also makes them the largest storage provider of natural gas in the country. When asked whether this acquisition adds additional risk to the company, Sherman said the storage business is 100% fee based, just like Inergy's propane business, and is agnostic to the price of the commodity. He said Inergy plans to grow and develop the Tres Palacios assets for at least the next 20 to 30 years. Sherman also noted that the acquisition also gives Inergy a competitive advantage over other players given the location of the Tres Palacios storage facilities. He said they sit right between the gas shale fields, with their huge reserves, and the high demand markets of the Northeast and Texas. He said it also gives Inergy exposure to Florida and the Midwest markets as well as several power generation markets. Cramer said with a 7.8% yield, Inergy is a must own stock, especially given its recent decline as a result of the company's secondary offering that will help it pay for the Tres Palacios deal. Am I Diversified? Cramer spoke with callers to see if their portfolios have what it takes. The first caller's portfolio included: Copano Energy (CPNO), Bank of America (BAC), Windstream energy (WIN), EV Energy Partners (EVEP) and Ford (F). Cramer said Copano and EV Energy Partners are two energy companies. He recommended selling Copano in favor of a food stock. The second caller's top holdings included AT&T (T), Loews (L), Pepco Holdings (POM), B&G Foods (BGF) and Clarcor (CLC). Cramer said this caller has done some great work and has a great portfolio. The third caller had Citigroup (C), Potash (POT), Microsoft (MSFT), Verizon (VZ) and Intel (INTC) as their top five stocks. Cramer said this portfolio can't have both Intel and Microsoft. He advised selling Microsoft and picking up an industrial company. The fourth caller's top stocks were AT&T (T), Altria (MO), Dominion (D), Southern Copper (SCCO) and United Technologies (UTX). Cramer said this portfolio was also terrific. Mad Mail In this segment, Cramer told a viewer that the stock of Citigroup (C) is under a lot of pressure as the government sells its stake. But he said the stock is trading below book value and will see $5 a share once that selling is done. Cramer told another viewer that he's not bullish on Chinese auto stocks, and would only recommend Ford (F), or the upcoming IPO of General Motors. When asked about platinum and copper stocks, Cramer said he's not a fan of platinum, but Freeport McMoRan (FCX) remains his favorite gold and copper play. Finally, when asked about Cree (CREE), Cramer said he's still bullish on the company for its long term LED light bulb exposure and would not be a seller on the short term weakness in LED TV's. Lightning Round Cramer was bullish on Nike (NKE), Range Resources (RRC), Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and NVIDIA (NVDA). He was bearish on Lululemon Athletica (LULU). --Written by Scott Rutt in Washington, D.C. To contact the writer of this article, click here: Scott Rutt. To follow the writer on Twitter, go to http://twitter.com/scottrutt. To submit a news tip, send an email to: tips@thestreet.com. To watch replays of Cramer's video segments, visit the Mad Money page on CNBC. Want more Cramer? Check out Jim's rules and commandments for investing from his latest book by clicking here. For more of Cramer's insights during the Lightning Round, click here.

'Mad Money Lightning Round': Go With Nvidia

Wed, 08/09/2010 - 15:11
To see the full "Mad Money" Recap, please click here. NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Here's what Jim Cramer had to say about some of the stocks that callers offered up during the "Mad Money Lightning Round" Wednesday evening. Nvidia (NVDA): "Everything is going up for Nvidia. They've got gaming chips, cell phone chips, they have it all." Lululemon Athletica (LULU): "I think they're going to have a good quarter, but it's too dicey. I like Nike (NKE) more." Range Resources (RRC): "This is the best if natural goes higher, and the second worst if it goes lower. I like Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP), but I like Range Resources long term." Microchip Technology (MCHP): "It looks like their yield is safe, but I'm going to do more work on this one." JPMorgan Chase (JPM): "You bet I like JPMorgan. I think the stock under $40 is an extreme buy. " --Written by Scott Rutt in Washington, D.C. To contact the writer of this article, click here: Scott Rutt. To follow the writer on Twitter, go to http://twitter.com/scottrutt. To submit a news tip, send an email to: tips@thestreet.com. To watch replays of Cramer's video segments, visit the Mad Money page on CNBC. *For all you home-gamers, a 'mon-back opportunity means Cramer would back up the figurative truck and load up on a stock. Want more Cramer? Check out Jim's rules and commandments for investing by clicking here.

Beige Book Slows Bulls: Dave's Daily

Wed, 08/09/2010 - 14:40
The stock snapback today was tepid and blunted by the Fed's Beige Book report which showed weakness. But, this should not have surprised given the known news from recent Fed statements. Nevertheless, gains were cut in half in the major indices except the NASDAQ. The hot commodity markets, at least in grains, cooled with a good crop report from Canada. Other than that most commodity markets continued their measured advance. Meanwhile, Thursday brings more fun from Jobless Claims and perhaps investors are awaiting this. It's also Rosh Hashanah beginning this evening. There's not much to add to Wednesday's comments unless we want to discuss more Mark Hurd nonsense. Spare me please. Volume remains quite light while breadth advanced overall. ' SPY: The weekly is the same chart from yesterday since nothing much changed. MDY & IWM: Small Caps show the same chart posted yesterday. Is this just laziness? No, it's convenient! QQQQ & AAPL: It's all Apple, all the time. Is there something else in tech land? Continue to U.S. Sectors, Stocks & Bonds IGV, ORCL, HPQ & SMH: These were the players so far this week--the good, the bad, the ugly. XLB: Materials are moving higher helped by overall run in base metals and so forth. XLF & GS: It looks like GS will unload their prop desk to KKR. They'll arrange the financing as well probably. Then if you're working on the trading desks do you move to some entity created by KKR with a little help from their friends in high places with registrations? It's hard to imagine them giving it all up but there it is. XLY & XRT: I must say, these two ETFs are quite misleading in their structure. It's not an intuitive arrangement of TGT, WMT and COST types of constituents. XLI: Industrials are propped higher on light volume and hopes things will improve. Ready for GM? IYR: The quest and panic for yield. IYT & FDX: A lift today from FDX where cost cutting measures are taking hold despite destruction of employee morale. XLU: One of the beneficiaries of the retail quest for safety and dividends. IEF, TLT & TIP: Everybody and his cousin is trying to fade (short) bonds but thus far it's been a graveyard for those that try. Continue to Currency & Commodity Markets $USD/DXY: Uncle Buck is just stuck as the day to day nonsense from the euro zone is pretty ridiculous.   FXE & FXY: The BOJ is unhappy with the strong yen and they're really gonna do something about it...really! GLD & SLV: Gold is struggling to breakout above obvious resistance. Silver on the other hand has already made the break but can it hold and go higher? I don't know, I just draw funny little line. DBC: It's really still in the trading range going back over one year. With a 50% weighting in energy as it goes so goes DBC. $WTIC, XLE & BP: Crude oil prices got a lift today and BP was spreading the blame as far as the previous slick extended. DBB & JJC: Base metals are rising and the demand must be coming from Asia. XME: The rise here makes perfect sense given the rise overall in metals and a tame stock market. DBA & JJG: Overall the sector was getting overbought and at resistance. Perhaps the rally is due for a break and Canada's crop report showed the way. MOO: Ag prices higher overall as are stock markets the past week. Why should MOO be left out of the fun? Continue to Overseas Markets & ETFs   EFA: EAFE index is also locked in the trading range as most don't quite know what the true nature of bank financial conditions are. EEM: Again, many EM's within the index really belong in the developed sector. EWJ: Japan market is producing little economic growth like other developed markets. Let's just say it's been boring and unprofitable the past year. EWA: Aussie market rallies with commodities as will Canada, Brazil and Russia. EWC: But, I repeat myself--commodity markets give it a boost. EWZ: Another market stuck in a one year trading range. RSX: Another market with almost a year in a trading range albeit with more volatility. EPI: Finally we break above $24. The major index in India achieved a new high last night. FXI & HAO: Chinese shares faltered overnight as investors fretted about another round of tightening to dampen housing. Meanwhile small caps and the new consumer ETF from GlobalX are outperforming perhaps showing the real strength underneath the market. The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term. The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended. The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise. Continue to Concluding Remarks Bulls were stopped in their tracks with the release of the Beige Book. Nevertheless, it was a positive day while volume remains ridiculously low. This is just repeating the previous pattern of light volume melt-ups and heavier volume on selloffs. Equity mutual fund redemptions reached 18 consecutive weeks. Mutual fund equity portfolio managers have little cash on hand (roughly 3%) necessary to meet redemptions. Therefore, there can be little buying power from this group. More troubling will be the lack of buying power from proprietary trading desks on Wall Street as firms shutter their operations. Tomorrow we get more serious data with Jobless Claims with everyone just tossing out the same estimates week after week. This will allow bulls to seize the tape if conditions warrant. Let's see what happens. You can follow our pithy comments on twitter and become a fan of ETF Digest on facebook.   Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: IYR, URE, XLU, TIP, GLD, DGP, SLV, AGQ, DBB, BDD, DBA, DAG, EPI and HAO.   The charts and comments are only the author's view of market activity and aren't recommendations to buy or sell any security.  Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period.  Chart annotations aren't predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author's opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.  

Dion's Wednesday ETF Winners and Losers

Wed, 08/09/2010 - 11:09
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Welcome to Don Dion's Daily ETF Winners and Losers. Be sure to stop by each day to get a feel of who's winning and who's losing when it comes to ETFs. Winners iShares MSCI Sweden Index Fund (EWD) 2.1% Investors remain concerned about the debt situation facing the European Union. However, the pressure was relieved a bit which helped to pave the way for gains across a number of Europe-focused ETFs. EWD and iShares MSCI France Index Fund (EWQ) were the two biggest movers, with EWQ jumping 1.3%. Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) 1.8% Russia has been struggling amidst a drought which destroyed a large portion of its wheat crops. This week, some of the pressure on the Russian wheat supply was lifted when experts announced that the nation's winter wheat supply would be similar to that of 2009. The wheat story has had a limited effect on the performance of RSX, however. Rather than agriculture, this ETF focuses heavily on the Russian oil and energy industry which together account for nearly 50% of its index. SPDR KBW Insurance ETF (KIE) 1.2% The insurance ETF is attempting to recover some of the ground it lost in light of Tuesday's broad market weakness. Throughout the summer, KIE has struggled to break out of a sideways trading pattern, bouncing around its 50-day moving average. Today's jump brings it back towards the upper reaches of this range. It will be interesting to see if it can at last break out. Genworth Financial (GNW) is a big mover among KIE's portfolio, jumping over 3% in early afternoon trading. Losers iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX) -1.7% After jumping yesterday in light of broad market weakness, the VIX-based ETN is once again taking a breather. Today's dip erases nearly all of Tuesday's gains. Despite the consistent market volatility, since late June VXX has fallen steadily, returning to late April levels. iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) -0.6% The markets are finding some strength today, driving investors out of defensive bond-positions into riskier asset classes. In response to TLT's slump, the leveraged, inverse ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TBT) is gaining ground, jumping 1%. United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) -1.1% The futures-backed natural gas ETF is struggling today while the equity-based First Trust ISE Revere Natural Gas Index Fund (FCG) is trading higher, jumping 0.7% in early afternoon trading. Elsewhere in the energy industry, the United States Oil Fund (USO) is up over 1% today in light of today's market optimism. iPath Dow Jones UBS Sugar Total Return Subindex ETN (SGG) -0.5% After powering higher on Tuesday, sugar prices are easing, causing the futures-backed SGG to take a small hit. Throughout the summer, the sweetener has staged an impressive recovery, erasing a large portion of the losses suffered during its early 2010 tumble. Sugar may be exciting to watch, but investors need to be cautious before jumping into a single commodity ETN like SGG. All prices as of 2:15 PM EST -- Written by Don Dion in Williamstown, Mass.

Executive Hiring on the Rise

Wed, 08/09/2010 - 10:54
By Cindy Perman, CNBC.com Writer For all the concerns about the sluggish jobs recovery, there's one group with an encouraging outlook: senior management. "The outlook is strong for executives," said John A. Challenger, CEO of employment-research firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. "Companies are trying to get executives that can help them capture the era of growth -- instead of just trying to survive the recession." With the worst of the recession apparently over, many companies are sitting on a lot of cash and looking to increase their business. So they want a strong management team to seek out mergers and acquisitions or take their existing business into new markets. Sales and marketing executives will be among the most in demand, Challenger said, because they're on the front lines of growth. By contrast, when times are tough, companies tend to put their financial or operational people in charge. "For a lot of marketing executives and professionals who got stuck in this recession, now opportunities are starting to open up again," Challenger said. Unfortunately, this doesn't mean a general pickup in hiring at all levels. But it does indicate that companies are thinking about expanding rather than cutting back. "There's some positive pressure on companies to hire more broadly," Challenger said, though he added that it's not heavy pressure. "Companies so far haven't taken the next leg of what creates hiring growth and demand ... there's still caution out there." The demand for executives doesn't end in the corner office: Companies also are looking for senior and even middle-management. Since the beginning of the year, listings for management jobs have jumped 41 percent on job-search site SimplyHired.com. That's everything from an executive director of comedy development for ABC Studios at Walt Disney (DIS) to a business-development executive for IBM (IBM) in New Orleans. SimplyHired has also noticed a significant bump in the sales and marketing manager categories. "The demand is where you expect in a tough economy," said Simply Hired CEO Gautam Godhwani. "Companies have to compensate and work harder to get sales." There's also a lot of demand right now for directors. "Director recruitments are at an all-time high for us," said John Wood, who runs the CEO and board practice at executive-recruiting firm Heidrick & Struggles International. "Two years ago, when things started to fall apart, boards looked at their retiring directors and said things like, 'You're not going anywhere! You're our most tenured director. We need your help,'" Wood explained. "Now, with some stabilization and signs of recovery, directors are able to retire and we're seeing an uptick in demand for new directors." In addition, companies seeking to go public and those emerging from bankruptcy -- particularly in the automotive industry -- are also hiring new directors. To some degree it's the big auto manufacturers, but mostly it's their suppliers. "Bringing in people who are comfortable with growing their business to someplace else is at a premium right now," Wood said. In terms of sectors, health care has seen the biggest bump in hiring overall -- and that goes for executive and management jobs, too. "There are opportunities in health care because of aging Baby Boomers and health-care legislation," Challenger said. "More small- and medium-sized firms are growing and they need stronger executive management," he explained. Physician executives who can run a 300-400 person medical group are in particular demand as are health-care technology executives, or "health information officers" as their known, said Andrew Chastain, a health-care executive recruiter at Witt/Kiefer. "Our clients are preparing for integrated information systems and they're bringing in more talent to push that initiative," Chastain said. Energy companies and firms looking to expand globally in places like China and India are also seeing significant executive hiring. Wall Street is starting to hire again but it's nowhere near as robust as it has been in the past. "They're coming back out of a deep hole," Challenger said. The hiring picture on Wall Street is a tale of two cities, said Ilana Weinstein, CEO of executive-search firm IDW Group. Hiring at investment banks has slowed down, while hiring at hedge funds has picked up. The reason, quite simply, is that's where the money is, Weinstein said. Investors are finding it hard to make the returns they need from the more traditional investment banks. So, they're increasingly putting their money with hedge funds, though they're careful to stick with hedge funds that have been around a while and have a proven track record. "They're successful in raising capital and deploying it, and that's what drives hiring," Weinstein said. Geographically speaking, the home of the nation's chief executive is also the top city for hiring corporate executives. Washington, D.C., topped the list of cities with the most managerial job openings per capita in August, according to the latest survey from job-search companies CareerCast and JobSerf. Boston came in at No. 2, followed by San Francisco, Seattle and Atlanta. Cleveland saw the most improvement in management hiring, with a gain of 19 percent, followed by Houston, up 14 percent. "During the past two years we've seen a major drop in managerial hiring activity," said Jay Martin, chief operating officer of JobSerf, a job-search outsourcing firm. "It is encouraging to see the recent stabilization in recruitment activity, and some light at the end of the tunnel," he said.

8 'Aristocrats' Fail Dividend Acid Test

Wed, 08/09/2010 - 10:38
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The investment thesis behind the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats -- an index composed of large-cap S&P 500 companies that have increased dividends for 25 consecutive years -- is simple and effective: Increased dividend payouts will compound over time. For example, a $1,000 investment in a stock yielding 4% -- growing dividend payout 7% annually -- will yield approximately 8% on the original $1,000, 10 years later (assuming no capital appreciation). This concept is known as "yield-on-cost." In a perfect world, investors would be able to buy a Dividend Aristocrats ETF, sit back and watch their portfolio appreciate. Unfortunately, things aren't so simple. Every December, Standard and Poor's adds and subtracts stocks from the Dividend Aristocrats index as companies come into and fall out of compliance. In December 2009, two companies were added to the list while 10 companies were eliminated (notable eliminations include General Electric (GE), Pfizer (PFE) and US Bancorp (USB)). For an individual investor mimicking the index, losses will almost certainly be realized with every eliminated security. A cautious investor should use the Dividend Aristocrats index only as a starting point for dividend stock ideas -- paying careful attention to the financial condition and prospects of each company. In the past, we have suggested that income investors periodically subject their portfolio to a "Dividend Acid Test*" -- a pass/fail exam that indicates if a company's dividend payout is covered, in full, by the company's liability adjusted cash flow yield (LACFY). Of course, a failing grade does not ensure that a dividend cut or elimination is imminent, but rather, that the failed company may have difficulty continuing payouts in the face of operational adversity or a large debt maturity. Similarly, a passing grade offers no guarantee that a company will not face a prolonged hardship or that the company's management will sustain its current dividend policy. Investors must always be cautious. The following pages contain pass/fail results for 39 of the 42 companies that comprise the 2010 S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats -- ranked in ascending order by liability adjusted cash flow yield**. *Pass = Dividend yield less than LACFY, Fail = Dividend yield greater than LACFY **To determine liability adjusted cash flow yield, a "short formula" was used, defined as: 5-Year Average Free Cash Flow / ((Outstanding Shares x Per Share Price) + (Liabilities - Cash)) Note: In the case of public utilities, "net income" has been used in place of "free cash flow." Insurance companies cannot be valued using a simple cash flow formula -- as a result -- Chubb, Aflac and Cincinnati Financial have been omitted from this list. 39. Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) Archer Daniels Midland is a processor of oilseeds, corn, wheat, cocoa, and other feedstuffs and is a manufacturer of vegetable oil and protein meal, corn sweeteners, flour, biodiesel, ethanol and other value-added food and feed ingredients. (more >>) 38. Integrys Energy Group (TEG) Integrys Energy Group is a holding company for its regulated utility and nonregulated business units. (more >>) 37. Air Products & Chemicals (APD) Air Products & Chemicals is a supplier of hydrogen and helium. The company also provides semiconductor materials, refinery hydrogen, natural gas liquefaction and advanced coatings and adhesives. (more >>) 36. Lowe's (LOW) Lowe's is a home improvement retailer geared to homeowners, renters and commercial business customers. (more >>) 35. Target (TGT) Target is engaged in the operation of general merchandise and food discount stores in the U.S. (more >>) 34. Consolidated Edison (ED) Consolidated Edison, through its subsidiaries, provides electric, gas and steam utility services in the U.S. (more >>) 33. Walgreen (WAG) Walgreen is engaged in the retail sale of prescription and non-prescription drugs and general merchandise. (more >>) 32. Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) Stanley Black & Decker is a worldwide supplier of tools and engineered solutions for professional, industrial, construction and do-it-yourself use, as well as engineered security solutions for industrial and commercial applications. (more >>) 31. Supervalu (SVU) Supervalu operates as a grocery retailer in the U.S. The company conducts its operations under three retail food store formats: combination stores, food stores and limited assortment food stores. (more >>) 30. CenturyLink (CTL) CenturyLink is a communications company, which is engaged in providing communications services, including local and long distance voice, Internet access and broadband services. (more >>) 29. Wal-Mart (WMT) Wal-Mart Stores operates Walmart discount stores, supercenters, Neighborhood Markets and Sam's Club locations in the U.S. (more >>) 28. Pitney Bowes (PBI) Pitney Bowes is a provider of mail-processing equipment and integrated mail solutions. The company sells and rents a wide range of mail-related products ranging from postage meters to office supplies. (more >>) 27. PepsiCo (PEP) PepsiCo is a global food, snack and beverage company that markets and sells a variety of salty, convenient, sweet and grain-based snacks, carbonated and non-carbonated beverages and foods. (more >>) 26. Coca-Cola (KO) Coca-Cola is a manufacturer, global distributor and marketer of nonalcoholic beverage concentrates and syrups. (more >>) 25. McDonald's (MCD) McDonald's franchises and operates McDonald's restaurants in the food service industry. The company and its franchisees purchase food, packaging, equipment and other goods from numerous independent suppliers. (more >>) 24. Bemis (BMS) Bemis is a manufacturer of flexible packaging products and pressure sensitive materials, selling to customers throughout the U.S., Canada, Mexico, South America, Europe and Asia Pacific. (more >>) 23. Clorox (CLX) Clorox is a manufacturer and marketer of consumer products. The company sells its products primarily through mass merchandisers, grocery stores and other retail outlets. (more >>) 22. W.W. Grainger (GWW) W.W. Grainger distributes facilities maintenance products and provides services and related information used by businesses and institutions mainly in the U.S., Canada and Mexico. (more >>) 21. Family Dollar Stores (FDO) Family Dollar Stores operates more than 6,600 general merchandise retail discount stores in 44 states. Merchandise assortment includes consumables, home products, apparel accessories, seasonal and electronics. (more >>) 20. Sigma-Aldrich (SIAL) Sigma-Aldrich is a life science and high technology company that develops, manufactures, purchases and distributes chemicals, biochemicals and equipment available throughout the world. (more >>) 19. PPG Industries (PPG) PPG Industries manufactures coatings, glass and chemical products. The company is comprised of six reportable business segments: Performance Coatings, Industrial Coatings, Architectural Coatings - EMEA, Optical and Specialty Materials, and Commodity Chemicals. (more >>) 18. Brown-Forman (BFB) Brown-Forman manufactures, bottles, imports, exports, and markets a wide variety of alcoholic beverage brands. (more >>) 17. Emerson Electric (EMR) Emerson Electric designs and supplies product technology and delivers engineering services in a range of industrial, commercial and consumer markets. (more >>) 16. Kimberly-Clark (KMB) Kimberly-Clark is engaged in the manufacturing and marketing of a range of consumer paper products. (more >>) 15. Abbott Laboratories (ABT) Abbott Laboratories is engaged in the discovery, development, manufacture, and sale of a broad and diversified line of health care products. (more >>) 14. Becton, Dickinson & Co (BDX) Becton, Dickinson & Co is engaged in the manufacture and sale of medical supplies, devices, laboratory equipment and diagnostic products used by health care institutions, life science researchers, clinical laboratories, industry and the general public. (more >>) 13. 3M (MMM) 3M Company is a global manufacturer, technology innovator and marketer of a variety of products. (more >>) 12. Procter & Gamble (PG) Procter & Gamble is focused on providing branded consumer packaged goods. The company markets its products in more than 180 countries. (more >>) 11. C.R. Bard (BCR) C.R. Bard is engaged in the design, manufacture, packaging, distribution and sale of medical, surgical, diagnostic and patient care devices. (more >>) 10. Dover (DOV) Dover owns and operates a global portfolio of manufacturing companies providing components and equipment, specialty systems and support services for a variety of applications. (more >>) 9. VF Corp (VFC) VF is an apparel company, which designs and manufactures, or sources from independent contractors, a variety of apparel and footwear for all ages. (more >>) 8. Sherwin-Williams (SHW) Sherwin-Williams is engaged in the development, manufacture, distribution and sale of paint, coatings and related products to professional, industrial, commercial and retail customers mainly in North and South America. (more >>) 7. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Johnson & Johnson is a holding company engaged in the research and development, manufacture and sale of a range of products in the health care field. (more >>) 6. Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Automatic Data Processing offers a wide range of human resource, payroll, tax and benefits administration solutions. (more >>) 5. Eli Lilly (LLY) Eli Lilly discovers, develops, manufactures and sells pharmaceutical products. The company also has an animal health business segment. (more >>) 4. ExxonMobil (XOM) ExxonMobil is engaged in the exploration, production, transportation and sale of crude oil and natural gas and the manufacture, transportation and sale of petroleum products. (more >>) 3. Cintas (CTAS) Cintas provides specialized products and services to businesses of all types, mainly throughout the U.S. and Canada. (more >>) 2. Leggett & Platt (LEG) Leggett & Platt is a manufacturer that conceives, designs and produces a range of engineered components and products. (more >>) 1. McGraw-Hill (MHP) McGraw-Hill is a global information services provider serving the education, financial services and business information markets with a range of information products and services. (more >>) -- Written by John DeFeo in New York. To contact the writer of this article, click here: John DeFeo. To submit a news tip, send an email to: tips@thestreet.com. RELATED STORIES: 10 Most Attractively Valued Dow Stocks >> 10 Dow Stocks Investors Should Avoid >> 7 Dow Dividend Stocks Safer Than T-Notes >>

Beverly Wilshire, Plaza In Facelift Faceoff

Wed, 08/09/2010 - 10:13
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- New York's Plaza and Los Angeles' Beverly Wilshire hotels just got multimillion-dollar facelifts, but do they make the old favorites any more attractive? By the time Fairmont's Plaza celebrates its 103rd birthday in October, it will have undergone $450 million in renovations that included making 152 condos out of some of its rooms and closing its famed Palm Court for more than a year. Not to be outdone, the Four Seasons' 82-year-old Beverly Wilshire recently completed a $40 million overhaul that included a complete restoration of its presidential and penthouse suites. Considering the hotel industry's gradual recovery since those renovations began, those improvements were as well-advised as avoiding the mini bar at either of said establishments. According to Smith Travel Research, hotel occupancy increased nearly 11% at the end of last month over the same period last year, with room revenue up 13% during that span. Meanwhile, despite slow growth in the U.S. luxury sector and increased competition in Europe and the Middle East, Smith Travel forecasts that U.S. hotel occupancy will increase 3.6% this year, to 56.7%, and continue to rise 2.5% next year. Room revenue, meanwhile, is forecast to rise 3% by year's end and 6.5% next year. Larger chains including Starwood (HOT), Intercontinental Hotels Group (IHG), Marriott (MAR) and Sonesta International (SNSTA) have already seen their stocks spike since spring, but can two of the gilded grand dames of America's hospitality circuit experience the same fortune? We took a look at improvements to the new Plaza and Beverly Wilshire and let the suites speak for themselves: PLAZA HOTEL Managed by Fairmont and opened in 1907. Renovations: The Plaza's recent rebirth centered on the $6.5 million restoration of its Palm Court. The sitting room is best known for its 1,800-square-foot yellow-and-green stained-glass skylight, afternoon teas and role in Kay Thompson's Eloise book series -- in which the 6-year-old title character inhabits the hotel's top floor. The hotel's shops have been spruced up as well, but the Food Hall -- a recreation of European food markets and, to a degree, the food hall at Harrods in London created by chef Todd English -- is not to be missed. Room to rent: The 18th-floor Eloise Suite, a pink-striped palace dreamed up by designer Betsey Johnson, features two rooms (one for parents, one for kids), a king-size bed with illustrations of Eloise created by series illustrator Hillary Knight gracing its bedspread and curtains, zebra-striped carpeting, Eloise's name in hot pink neon on the wall and a tea set with dolls of Eloise and her dog Weenie. The $995-a-night suite is a lovely complement to the 2,100-square-foot dollhouse-style Eloise boutique tucked among the Plaza's shops. BEVERLY WILSHIRE Managed by Four Seasons and opened in 1928. Renovations: The victors get spoiled, as the Beverly Wilshire poured much of its renovation budget into its two top rooms -- the penthouse and presidential suite. The latter, on the eighth floor of the original Wilshire wing, has two bedrooms, a living room, a library, 4,000 square feet of office space, deep-soaking tub, steam showers for two and a dining room with a granite-countertopped kitchen area. Its $20,000-a-night price tag includes five hours of spa, personal training, stylist or makeup time a week, a refrigerator stocked weekly and a dedicated personal concierge. With all that, it's still not the best room in the house. Room to rent: The penthouse, with its 5,000-square-feet of space on the private, key-accessed 14th floor of the Beverly wing, has great views of downtown and the Hollywood hills. However, it earns its $25,000-a-night cost (expensive, but still not close to the $65,000-a-night Royal Penthouse Suite at the Hotel President Wilson in Geneva) with Swarovski crystal chandeliers and marble mosaic tile floors in its entryway, motorized drapery in the living room, a 160-square-foot walk-in closet in the bedroom, a steam and rain shower with its own light and music system in the bathroom and a 55-inch screen in the living room. By the way, the six-figure Porsche Panamera down in the garage is yours for the length of your stay. --Written by Jason Notte in Boston. >To contact the writer of this article, click here: Jason Notte. >To follow the writer on Twitter, go to http://twitter.com/notteham. >To submit a news tip, send an email to: tips@thestreet.com.

Google Needs to Expand its Mobile Apps Program

Wed, 08/09/2010 - 08:31
Google (GOOG) could attract more paid users by bundling its Apps program with its growing library of mobile business apps for the Android smartphone operating system. We see a modest 2% upside to our $643 stock price estimate for Google in the event that the company manages to convert 20% of Google Apps users to the paid version by the end of our forecast period. Google Apps includes e-mail, calendar, word processing, spreadsheet and collaboration programs. Although the Google Apps user base has grown in the last few years, the overwhelming majority of users don't pay for the service. We estimate that only 6% of Google Apps users are actually paid users, while the rest use the free version. Google Apps currently constitutes less than 1% of the $643 Trefis price estimate for Google's stock. Google competes with Microsoft (MSFT) and others in the Web-based productivity software market. Like other so-called cloud applications, Google Apps is accessed over the Internet and hosted by Google's data centers rather than on the customer's network. Cloud-based services like Google Apps are growing in popularity because they can provide cost and maintenance savings over traditional software. We expect the Google Apps user base to increase from 25 million in 2009 to around 140 million by the end of the Trefis forecast period. You can drag the trend-line in the chart below to create your own Google Apps user forecast and see how it impacts the company's estimated share value. According to Gartner, the current paid user base for Google Apps is between between 1million and 2 million, or 6% of the current total. Until Google figures out a strategy to attract more paid users, we expect this percentage to remain constant going forward. Google could enlist more paid users by bundling its business-oriented Android based smartphone apps with Google Apps to provide a complete suite of mobile software for businesses. The Android platform currently features more than 70,000 apps, second only to Apple's (AAPL) App Store. Integrating Google Apps with the Android app ecosystem could give Google a significant edge over Microsoft and Apple. Although Microsoft dominates the productivity software market, it offers only a few mobile apps. And although Apple dominates the mobile app market, it has little presence in the enterprise space. Google could also bundle Apps with future versions of its Nexus One smartphone. Although Nexus One was not received well by consumers, Google might do better by positioning the phone as an app-rich productivity and collaboration device for the business market. This could be cost-effective for enterprises and would also help monetize Google Apps. You can see the complete $643 Trefis Price estimate for Google's stock here . Like our charts? Embed them in your own posts using the Trefis Wordpress Plugin.

Starwood Hotels: How to Play It

Wed, 08/09/2010 - 08:08
BOSTON (TheStreet) -- Starwood Hotels (HOT) has soared 75% in the past 12 months, outperforming the S&P 500 by 68 percentage points. The stock's beta value (a measure of stock market correlation) of two explains just a portion of the meteoric run. The rest is due to operational improvement. Still, Starwood has delivered annualized losses of 6.1% since 2007. Is Starwood still an attractive hotel stock or are competitors' shares better picks? Starwood's second-quarter net income decreased 15% to $114 million, but earnings per share tumbled 46% to 42 cents. Revenue grew 10% to $1.3 billion. The gross margin widened from 22% to 23% and the operating margin extended from 8.9% to 11%. Starwood held $154 million of cash and $3.4 billion of debt at the end of the quarter, equal to a weak quick ratio of 0.4 and an excessive debt-to-equity ratio of 1.7. Quarterly return on equity, a key measure of profitability for investors, turned negative, and return on assets contracted from 3.6% to 0.8%. Those returns lagged the mean for the industry and S&P 500. Starwood's stock has gained 14% since the quarterly report. It trades at a forward earnings multiple of 35 and a cash flow multiple of 22 -- 44% and 67% discounts to hotel, resort and cruise line peer averages. Yet its book value multiple of 5 and sales multiple of 2 reflect discounts of 14% and 25%. The stock offers a distribution yield of 0.4%. Analysts are bullish, with 14, or 64%, rating Starwood "buy" and eight rating it "hold." None rank the stock a "sell." A median price target of $56.57 suggests a 13% return. Bullish are Stifel Financial, expecting the stock to rise 40% to $70, and Citigroup, predicting a gain of 30% to $65. In the bear camp are Deutsche Bank, expecting Starwood to fall 16% to $42, and Societe Generale, forecasting a 20% drop to $40. Institutional owners paint a muddled picture. Of the 20 largest, nine, including largest investor Waddell & Reed (WDR), added to their positions in the latest quarter as nine, including second-largest owner Fidelity, trimmed their holdings. Two investors held steady. TheStreet's quantitative stock model is cautious on Starwood, rating it "hold." The model prefers Home Inns & Hotel Management (HMIN), a Chinese economy chain rated "buy." Sonesta International Hotels (SNSTA) and Choice Hotels (CHH) are rated "hold", but receive higher overall marks than Starwood does for risk-adjusted performance. Analysts' favorite hotel stock is Full House Resorts (FLL) which receives "buy"-ratings from all four analysts covering the company. A median price target of $4.62 suggests a return of 47%. Another sell-side favorite is Wyndham Resorts (WYN). Of researchers following Wyndham, eight, or 89%, advise purchasing its shares and one recommends holding. None advocate selling. A median target of $31.83 implies that the stock could rise 23%. To reiterate: Analysts are more positive on both Wyndham and Full House than they are on Starwood and expect greater upside in the aforementioned stocks. Investors looking to mitigate idiosyncratic risk should consider the PowerShares Dynamic Leisure & Entertainment ETF (PEJ). -- Written by Jake Lynch in Boston. RELATED STORIES: 10 Cash-Rich Companies With No Debt 10 Stocks Selling at the Deepest Discounts Become a fan of TheStreet on Facebook.

More Employers May Look to Higher Deductibles

Wed, 08/09/2010 - 04:30
BOSTON (TheStreet) -- On Sept. 23, six months after the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act became law, the meat of its health care reforms begin kicking in. On that date, children under the age of 26 will be allowed to stay on their parents' insurance policy if they don't have one of their own. A ban on "lifetime limits" for insurance coverage will go into effect, as does a prohibition on excluding children with pre-existing conditions and the creation of a consumer appeal process. These steps could lead companies to rethink their health plans, potentially passing added costs to employees with a shift to high-deductible plans. Dennis Triplett, CEO of UMB Healthcare Services, part of UMB Financial (UMBF), expects that growth in spending will increase demand for health services and products and drive further increases in costs. Higher insurance premiums, in a 5-30% range, could be likely in the coming years, he says. A poll by the National Business Group on Health, an association of large companies, found that employers estimate their health care benefit costs will increase an average of 8.9% next year. To control those increases, 63% of responding employers said they plan to increase the percentage employees contribute to the premium. One-fourth of respondents plan to raise the co-pay or coinsurance for retail pharmacy prescription drug benefits. Of course, for many long-term employees, hikes in the cost of health benefits and prescription co-pays isn't a threat; it's business as usual. Health insurance premiums have doubled on average during the last 10 years, much faster than wages and inflation, putting health coverage out of reach for millions of Americans and business owners, according to the U.S. Health and Human Services secretary, Kathleen Sebelius. The White House says the reform plan makes insurance more affordable by providing the largest middle class tax cut for health care in history and reducing premium costs for tens of millions of families and small-business owners. Last month, $46 million in grants was announced so 45 states and the District of Columbia could "improve the oversight of proposed health insurance premium increases, take action against insurers seeking unreasonable rate hikes and ensure consumers receive value for their premium dollars," Sebelius said. More than 61% of companies responding to the National Business Group's poll said they will offer a consumer-directed health plan next year, two-thirds of them providing a high-deductible plan combined with a health savings account. The traditional insurance model -- in which employers pay the premiums for coverage (with employees contributing) and insurance companies pay for services and products -- "does little to control costs for businesses or many consumers," Triplett says. "The consumer has little incentive to monitor or manage the costs of care ... When they have skin in the game, they behave differently." Postreform, employers will increasingly look to consumer-directed plans to address the lack of incentives, or "moral hazard," in fee-for-service plans. Triplett says an increase in the use of high-deductible plans needs to be in concert with the ability of consumers to use tax-advantaged flexible spending accounts, health care spending accounts and health reimbursement arrangements. These savings vehicles were nearly a casualty of health care reform, not an integrated part of it, Triplett says. Officials initially sought to eliminate them as a means to recapture lost tax revenue and defray the cost of reforms. "All of us in the FSA space felt we had a near-death experience," he says. An initial Congressional proposal would have eliminated the plans entirely. After lobbying efforts, FSAs were spared but given a $1,500 cap. The cap would eventually be finalized at $2,500 by 2013 (there is currently no limit). "We just kept telling Congress at the time the people you are impacting are not the healthy and wealthy necessarily, you are impacting people who need this most," Triplett says of the lobbying effort. "You would be hurting people who have chronic diseases who need to set money aside. Plus, you are hurting younger parents who are trying to put braces on their children and those sorts of things." Triplett says that although FSAs were spared, Congress can still do more to ensure their viability. While there was once a grace period beyond year-end to spend leftover dollars, postreform regulations impose a strict Dec. 31 deadline. The funds, though indexed for inflation, are not indexed to the faster-increasing rate of medical inflation. Provisions for over-the-counter drugs may also cause confusion, he says. Starting next year, the cost of over-the-counter medications (excluding insulin) cannot be reimbursed from the account without a prescription. An analysis by Hewitt Associates (HEW), a global human resources consulting and outsourcing company, may ease the fears of FSA users. It found that, despite the tax savings, only one in five employees contributed to an FSA this year. Employees who do participate typically save between $250 and $400 each year in federal taxes. As for the cap, Hewitt found that for employees who contribute to an FSA, the average annual contribution is $1,441. Just 18% contributed more than the new limit of $2,500, and those who did tended to be people earning more than $150,000 per year. --Written by Joe Mont in Boston. >To contact the writer of this article, click here: Joe Mont. >To follow the writer on Twitter, go to http://twitter.com/josephmont. >To submit a news tip, send an email to: tips@thestreet.com. RELATED STORIES: >>The Best & Worst Places to Get Sick >>Health Care Hagglers Say They Save Up to Half >>Medical Costs Could Top $250,000 for Retirees >>Health-Care Bill: Consumer, Business Angles Get more stock ideas and investing advice on our sister site, Stockpickr.com.

Saving for Retirees' Health Takes Robust Leap

Wed, 08/09/2010 - 04:29
BOSTON (TheStreet) -- Managing health care expenses is an increasing concern for preretirees and retirees alike. First Command Financial Services, the parent company of First Command Bank, released research this week suggesting that middle-class Americans are bumping up their monthly retirement savings to cover future health care costs. Its numbers show that average monthly savings solely for health care costs during retirement climbed to $245 in July, up 42% from $173 a year ago. One in five Americans who save for health care costs in retirement are setting aside nearly $300 per month toward this future expense, compared with 14% last year. The statistics are culled from a monthly survey of 1,000 U.S. residents between the age of 25 and 70 with annual household incomes of at least $50,000. "More than two-thirds of middle-class families are concerned about how they will pay for medical care during retirement, and they are starting to take action," Scott Spiker, CEO of First Command Financial Services, said in a statement. "Three out of 10 consumers say that their current retirement planning includes saving for health care costs in retirement, separate from typical daily living expenses." Research released earlier this year by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College found that, at age 65, a typical married couple, free of chronic disease, can expect to spend $197,000 on health care for the rest of their lives. Including nursing home care, the mean cost is $260,000, with a 5% probability of costs exceeding $570,000. In March, a study by Fidelity Investments offered a more worrisome projection. It purports that a 65-year-old couple retiring this year may need more than $250,000 to pay for medical expenses, not including nursing-home care. That total is up 4.2% from a similar Fidelity survey last year and an increase of 56% since 2002. The Fidelity study found that health care costs average $535 a month, or one-fifth of an average retired couple's total monthly expenses of $2,842. The estimates apply to those who lack employer-provided coverage, but qualify for Medicare. More than half (51%) of the respondents said they are paying out-of-pocket for health care costs not covered by Medicare and 45% have bought supplemental insurance to cover that gap. Even though much of the recent health care reform package is focused on those under 65, retirees may benefit from the closing of the so-called "doughnut hole" gap in Medicare Part D coverage. Seniors caught between the limit of their current drug coverage and the government's "catastrophic coverage threshold" can be stuck paying thousands of dollars out of pocket. The gap, under the reform package, would be eliminated by 2020, when seniors would be responsible for 25% of the cost of their medications until catastrophic coverage kicks in. --Written by Joe Mont in Boston. >To contact the writer of this article, click here: Joe Mont. >To follow the writer on Twitter, go to http://twitter.com/josephmont. >To submit a news tip, send an email to: tips@thestreet.com. RELATED STORIES: >>The Best & Worst Places to Get Sick >>Health Care Hagglers Say They Save Up to Half >>Medical Costs Could Top $250,000 for Retirees Get more stock ideas and investing advice on our sister site, Stockpickr.com.

10 Dividend Stocks With Yields Up to 10%

Wed, 08/09/2010 - 04:13
BOSTON (TheStreet) -- Dividends are crucial to beating stock-market benchmarks and achieving a higher return than that offered by bonds. Dow stocks such as Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) offer larger payouts than Treasuries do. Still, Dow components are no match for the highest-yielding U.S. stocks, which are listed below. (Excluded are REITs and MLPs.) 10. Duke Energy (DUK) is an electric utility. Since 2007, it has grown revenue 3.5% annually, on average. Duke swung to a second-quarter loss of $222 million, or 17 cents a share, as revenue increased 13% to $3.3 billion. The operating margin widened from 19% to 22%. Duke's stock trades at a forward earnings multiple of 13, a book value multiple of 1.1 and a cash flow multiple of 5 -- 4%, 34% and 14% discounts to utility peer averages. Around 16% of analysts covering the stock rate it "buy." A median target of $17.48 suggests it is fairly valued. 9. Pepco Holdings (POM) is an electric and natural gas utility. Pepco swung to a second-quarter loss of $54 million, but a per share profit of 34 cents. Revenue declined 1.8% to $1.6 billion. The operating margin extended from 8.6% to 12%. Pepco's stock is expensive based on forward earnings. But it sells for a book value multiple of 1, a sales multiple of 0.5 and a cash flow multiple of 3.8 -- 40%, 65% and 35% discounts to utility averages. Roughly 40% of analysts rate the stock "buy" and 60% rank it "hold." A median target of $18.19 implies that it's overpriced. 8. AT&T (T) is an integrated telecommunications company. Its second-quarter profit increased 26% to $4 billion, or 68 cents a share, as revenue inched up to $31 billion. The operating margin expanded from 18% to 20%. AT&T's stock trades at a trailing earnings multiple of 13, a forward earnings multiple of 11 and a book value multiple of 1.6 -- 51%, 21% and 38% discounts to telecommunications industry averages. Of analysts covering AT&T, 54% rate its stock "buy" and 46% rank it "hold." A median target of $29.36 suggests a return of 8% in the weeks ahead. 7. Verizon Communications (VZ) is the largest telecom company in the U.S. Verizon swung to a second-quarter loss of $198 million, or 7 cents a share, from a year-earlier profit. Revenue grew margially to $27 billion. The operating margin stayed at 19%. Verizon's stock sells for a book value multiple of 2.2, a sales multiple of 0.8 and a cash flow multiple of 2.5 -- 15%, 36% and 38% discounts to telecom peer averages. Of researchers following Verizon, 36% rate its shares "buy" and 64% rate them "hold." A median target of $30.95 implies 2% of upside. 6. Reynolds American (RAI) manufactures and sells cigarettes, including the Camel brand. Second-quarter profit fell 9.6% to $341 million, or $1.17 a share, as revenue hovered at $2.2 billion. The operating margin remained steady at 29%. Reynolds American's stock trades at a forward earnings multiple of 11, a book value multiple of 2.6 and a sales multiple of 2 -- 18%, 82% and 42% discounts to tobacco industry averages. Of analysts covering Reynolds, 36% rate its stock "buy", 36% rate it "hold" and 28% rank it "sell." A median target of $59.40 suggests a return of 3%. 5. Altria Group (MO) sells cigarettes, tobacco and wine. Second-quarter profit ascended 3.2% to $1 billion, or 50 cents a share, as revenue declined 5.5% to $4.3 billion. The operating margin extended from 39% to 40%. Altria's stock sells for a forward earnings multiple of 11 and a sales multiple of 2.9 -- 15% and 16% discounts to tobacco peer averages. It's fairly valued based on book value and cash flow per share. Of researchers following Altria, 53% rate its stock "buy" and 47% rate it "hold." A median target of $24.12 implies 4% of upside lies ahead. 4. Pitney Bowes (PBI) sells mail processing equipment and services. Second-quarter profit tumbled 48% to $61 million, or 31 cents a share, as revenue declined 5.9%. The operating margin fell from 17% to 16%. Pitney Bowes shares trade at a trailing earnings multiple of 11, a forward earnings multiple of 8.9, a sales multiple of 0.8 and a cash flow multiple of 5.4 -- 56%, 54%, 56% and 52% discounts to peer averages. Around 40% of analysts rate the stock "buy", 40% rate it "hold" and 20% rank it "sell." A median target of $24 suggests a 22% return. 3. CenturyLink (CTL) is an integrated telecommunications company about to merge in a stock-for-stock deal with Qwest (Q). Second-quarter net income more than tripled to $239 million, but earnings per share gained a more modest 16% to 79 cents. Revenue more than doubled. The operating margin rose from 28% to 31%. CenturyLink's stock sells for a forward earnings multiple of 11 and a book value multiple of 1.1 -- 19% and 55% discounts to peer averages. Roughly 65% of analysts rate it "buy." A median target of $38.17 implies 6% of upside. 2. Windstream (WIN) sells telecom services in rural areas of the U.S. Its second-quarter profit decreased 13% to $79 million, or 17 cents a share, as revenue stretched 22% to $917 million. The gross margin remained steady at 62%, but the operating margin fell from 33% to 30%. Windstream's stock trades at a premium to peers based on forward earnings, book value and cash flow. Around 55% of analysts following Windstream rate its stock "buy" and the remaining 45% rank it "hold." A median target of $12.75 suggests a 7% climb in the weeks ahead. 1. Frontier Communications (FTR) sells voice, data and video services to residential, business and wholesale customers. Second-quarter profit increased 26% to $35 million, or 11 cents a share, as revenue contracted 3% to $516 million. The operating margin rose from 28% to 34%. Frontier's stock trades at a premium to peers based on forward earnings, book value and sales. It's cheap based on cash flow per share. Roughly 20% of researchers rate it "buy", 53% rate it "hold" and 27% rank it "sell." A median target of $7.69 implies that the stock is fairly valued. -- Written by Jake Lynch in Boston. RELATED STORIES: 10 Cash-Rich Companies With No Debt 10 Stocks Selling at the Deepest Discounts Become a fan of TheStreet on Facebook.

American Express to Fix Late-Payment Policy

Wed, 08/09/2010 - 04:00
American Express is changing a controversial and worrisome policy on "past due" dates, a representative said Tuesday after the release of a CardHub.com Late Payment Policy Study. American Express (AXP) customers shouldn't take it for granted, though. They may be in for a shock when checking their late-payment status after missing a due date. I was certainly shocked a few weeks ago, when I realized I had missed the deadline on a payment by a few days but saw my status read "30-plus days past due." When I called to report the error, though, I was told it was not a mistake. Because of this, CardHub.com decided to investigate the late-payment policies of the six largest credit card issuers. CardHub.com contacted Bank of America (BAC), Citi (C), Capital One (COF), Chase (JPM) and Discover (DFS) to compare their answers with American Express' on how late a customer is considered in the following example: If a credit card bill is generated Aug. 2 and a payment due Aug. 27, how late is a payment considered if not made by Sept. 3, which would be seven days later -- and one day after the next bill is generated? American Express was the only issuer that would consider a customer 30-plus days past due; all other issuers would consider a customer five-plus days past due. A representative from American Express' executive consumer relations office confirmed through email correspondence that "A person will be considered 30-plus days past due on both charge card and credit card accounts if they have not made a payment by the time the next bill is generated" (Sept. 2, in the example above). This aggressive and counterintuitive late payment policy has major implications not only for American Express customers, but for the entire credit industry. It is out of sync with the industry standard. Since the CARD Act came into effect, regulators, consumers and the media are more alert to inconsistent and aggressive practices such as this. The last thing we need in an already-tight credit market is each issuer defining its own late-payment policy separately. American Express is also communicating an incorrect message to its customers. American Express customers are being told they are 25 days more past due than they actually are. This is a distressing message for those who know most credit card companies will report customers to credit bureaus as being delinquent once 30 days past due on a payment. It was also concerning how a premature classification of past-due status would affect the way American Express applies the penalty APR to customer accounts, also triggered by the number of days past due a customer is on a payment. CardHub.com contacted members of the executive consumer relations and public relations teams at American Express, as well as calling customer service to better understand these policies. Employees seemed just as confused by the policy as we were. They confirmed the penalty APR is applied to the balance of a customer's account after the customer is 60 days past due. The problem here is that 60 days past due at American Express is really only 30 days past the actual due date for the bill, and what every other issuer in our study would consider 30 days past due. The CARD Act prohibits a credit card company from applying the penalty APR to a customer's balance unless a payment has not been received "within 60 days after the due date for such payment." If American Express was in fact doing what their customer relations representatives said, they would be breaking the law. This is not the case, an American Express spokeswoman said, and the confusion was due to different "nomenclature." She said: "'30 days past due' with another issuer may mean '30 days delinquent.' However, where an American Express customer sees '30 days past due,' this refers to the aging of the account and does not mean that the account is 30 days delinquent." The term "past due" at American Express means how many days past the day the bill was generated, and not how many days past the due date, she said. There were similar conflicting answers regarding the reporting of delinquency status. The customer relations representatives confirmed that when a customer is 120 days past due based on American Express' definition of past due (which is 90 days past due for other issuers), that customer will be reported to the credit bureaus as being 120 days delinquent. The official spokeswoman, on the other hand, said American Express does not report the number of days a customer is delinquent -- only whether the customer is in collections. Since the implications of prematurely applying the penalty APR and incorrectly reporting a customer's delinquency status are so serious, I believe the official spokeswoman is probably correct on both accounts. But the fact that they are consistently inflating the number of days past due by 25 days is clearly causing some confusion for their customers and even for their own employees. To American Express' credit, the spokeswoman said she has raised this issue internally. Even though she characterized our study as "erroneous", she has taken steps to change American Express' past due message from saying an account is 30 days past due when it is really only five days past due to a message that simply says "This account is past due" or "This account is seriously past due." The number of days past due has a major impact on the affordability of consumers' credit and credit scores. Given the conflicting messages we got, if you are a former or current American Express customer that has been seriously delinquent, you may want to double check that your delinquency status was reported accurately to the credit bureaus and that your APR was not increased based on American Express' aggressive definition of past-due status -- just to be on the safe side. In the current environment, in which transparent communication with consumers is so important, it is surprising regulators would allow a bank to make up a self-serving definition for an otherwise clearly defined and universally understood term. It is my hope American Express will correct this practice before regulators get involved. >To submit a news tip, send an email to: tips@thestreet.com. RELATED STORIES: >>American Express: Financial Winners & Losers >>Card Outlook Positive for Big Issuers >>What Your Credit Card Application is Hiding Follow TheStreet.com on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

Nordstrom Data Hint at Return to Upscale

Wed, 08/09/2010 - 03:30
By Greg Lamm for American City Business Journals SEATTLE -- Upbeat consumers appear to be among the catalysts for a bump in retail sales, with local retailers across the spectrum from upscale (Nordstrom (JWN)) to discount (Costco Wholesale (COST)) to teen-oriented (Zumiez (ZUMZ)) all showing improved sales numbers. Nordstrom reported that August sales figures for stores open a year or longer increased 6.3% over the same time last year, beating analyst expectations. Nordstrom's off-price Rack division, meanwhile, saw a 4.2 percent drop in August same-store sales. That might be more evidence that some of those Rack shoppers are coming into the chain's more upscale department stores. If that trend continues, it will be interesting to see if it alters Nordstrom's growth strategy. In the past 12 months, Nordstrom saw a net gain of 20 stores, but only four full-line department stores. The other 16 were Racks or other smaller stores. Nordstrom's boost in sales was especially a good sign that consumers were feeling good about their personal finances and perhaps willing to shop at an upscale store. Nordstrom did note that the average shopper is spending less per visit. And the Seattle-based retailer also noted in its sales report Thursday that its direct division, which includes online orders, saw increased sales of 33% in the past year. The upbeat sales numbers for August compared with the same month last year, while good news, reflect how dismal retail sales were a year ago, when customers were feeling gloomy about the economy and not spending. Issaquah, Wash.-based Costco reported Thursday that same-store sales at stores open a year or longer increased 7% last month compared with the same time a year earlier. That beat analyst expectations. Wall Street reacted positively. Overall, Retail Metrics, which tracks retail data for investors, noted that it was the first positive sign in months for retailers. Zumiez, of Everett, Wash., also saw solid gains. As a seller of action sports related apparel and accessories to 12- to 24-year-olds, the chain saw revenue at stores open at least a year grow 9.1% in August, versus a 12.1% drop last year. There are 377 stores in the chain in 35 states, most of them in malls. >To submit a news tip, send an email to: tips@thestreet.com. RELATED STORIES: >>Consumer Confidence Swoons in Summer >>Costco and BJ's Battle for Wholesale Supremacy >>Zumiez Skyrockets on Strong Sales Follow TheStreet.com on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

Three ETFs George Soros Might Like

Wed, 08/09/2010 - 03:15
By Jared Cummans for ETF Database With housing markets in a tailspin, ongoing concerns over the fiscal health of developed markets and no signs of meaningful job creation in the U.S., these are uncertain times. Conflicting data reports have clouded the outlook for the U.S. economy, while investors remain divided over the prospects for fast-growing emerging markets. Few know more about turning a profit in tumultuous environments than the Man Who Broke The Bank of England. Legendary investor George Soros made a big chunk of his fortune in uncertain economic environments, once reportedly pocketing close to $1 billion on a single day by shorting the British pound. Over the years, Soros has accumulated a fortune of approximately $14 billion, making him the 35th richest person in the world, according to Forbes. Even with this massive fortune in hand, Soros has remained active in the investment business, making some major acquisitions in recent years. >>>View George Soros' Portfolio Determining where the legendary investor has his personal fortune invested is obviously a bit tricky, but public filings shed some light on where Soros is betting. Below, we profile several ETFs that may not be owned directly by Soros, but seem to line up well with investments made in recent months GOLD ETFS At the end of the second quarter, funds run by Soros reportedly had a major position in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD). The ETF accounted for almost 20% of portfolio assets according to a 13F filing made in August, suggesting Soros is concerned about the outlook for equity markets and believes gold still has room to run higher after teasing record highs in recent weeks. So far, this call has paid off big, as GLD is up close to 30% over the last year and more than 10% this year. For investors looking for cheaper gold exposure, there is also the COMEX Gold Trust (IAU), which iShares has competitively priced at 0.25% (GLD charges an expense ratio of 0.40%). This ETF is nearly identical to GLD except that one share of of IAU represents approximately 1/100th of an ounce of gold, while one share of GLD represents close to 1/10th an ounce of the valuable metal. INDIA ETFS In the foreword to Soros' book The Alchemy of Finance, Paul Volcker noted that Soros has taken an interest in emerging markets. "The bulk of his enormous winnings is now devoted to encouraging transitional and emerging nations to become 'open societies,' open not only in the sense of freedom of commerce but -- more important -- tolerant of new ideas and different modes of thinking and behavior," wrote the former Fed chairman. Soros' Quantum hedge fund recently bought a 4% stake in the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) in India, a deal that valued Asia's oldest exchange at more than $800 million. The acquisition comes as India continues to modernize its capital markets, opening new exchanges and listing new products. With U.S. investors increasingly comfortable with more significant allocations to emerging markets, India has become a popular investment destination. Soros' stake in the BSE seems to be a bet on continued advancements in India's financial industry, developments that could make Indian equities more attractive to international investors. There are a number of ETFs offering exposure to India's stock markets, including small-cap funds (SCIN) (SCIF), large-cap ETFs (INDY) (EPI) and ETNs (INP). AGRIBUSINESS ETFS After GLD, the largest position maintained by Soros Fund Management at the end of Q2 was in Monsanto (MON), the agricultural biotechnology company that makes everything from Roundup to genetically engineered seeds. MON is a major holding in funds focusing on the agribusiness sector, including the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) and PowerShares Global Agriculture Portfolio (PAGG). The agribusiness sector has been in focus in recent weeks as mining giant BHP Billiton (BHP) has waged a campaign to buy Canada's Potash (POT). That sparked speculation of a wave of consolidation in the space, boosting the outlook for the entire sector. >To submit a news tip, send an email to: tips@thestreet.com. RELATED STORIES: >>5 Market Heavyweights' Recent Picks >>Soros, Paulson Trading Gold. Should You? >>Why George Soros Is Buying Westport Innovations Follow TheStreet.com on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

Industrial ETFs Could Get Lift From Obama

Wed, 08/09/2010 - 02:44
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- President Obama is mulling a number of business-focused proposals that should boost popular industrial sector-related ETFs. Further aiding the industrial sector's prospects is General Electric (GE), which has adopted an optimistic outlook for the future. With approval numbers slipping due to concerns regarding his ability to fix the U.S. economy, President Obama appears to be taking steps to recovering some lost ground and instill faith in citizens that the government is focused on economic recovery and unemployment. Video: ETF for a GE Revival >> In the final weeks leading up to the hotly anticipated mid-term elections, Obama and his team have proposed a number of initiatives aimed at helping to jumpstart new projects. A tax break -- considered one of the bolder business-focused plans proposed by the Obama administration -- would allow companies to write off the entirety of large new investments in the first year of a project through 2011. Proponents of this plan believe that this would provide firms with a welcomed injection of cash and provide an incentive for less confident companies to get a start on new projects. According to the Wall Street Journal, the plan is projected to help save companies $200 billion over two years. Aside from the tax break, the administration has proposed a $50 billion spending plan which would be used to boost construction on a number of infrastructure projects. While they will still need the approval of Congress before any of these plans can go into effect, Obama's proposals, if they are approved, are expected to provide industrial companies with a welcomed boost. Investors looking for exposure to the largest and most well known members of this slice of the market should look to the Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI). XLI tracks the performance of nearly 60 different firms including household names: Boeing (BA), 3M (MMM), UPS (UPS) and Caterpillar (CAT). XLI heavily relies on its top 10 stocks, which account for 50% of its total portfolio. Representing over 10% of the fund's total portfolio, General Electric, which commands the largest position in XLI. Looking to the future, General Electric appears promising. In fact, I feel that the company could be the firm to watch in 2011. -- Written by Don Dion in Williamstown, Mass. Readers Also Like: >>10 Dividend Stocks With Yields up to 10%

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